The Gators start the season atop the AP poll for the first time since 2006. Since 2000, preseason No. 1s have won just three of 25 national titles, and none has done it since 2009.
The last time Florida opened a season at No. 1, it worked out about as well as it possibly could. The Gators were the defending national champions in the fall of 2006, began the 2006-07 season atop the AP poll and finished it by winning a second straight title.
Twenty years later, Florida is back at No. 1 in the preseason poll, edging out Duke. The Gators have a roster valued at more than $25 million, according to CBS Sports, and they won the national title just two seasons ago.
They're also carrying the heaviest label in college basketball. History says preseason No. 1 is a great place to start and a terrible predictor of where you'll finish.
Three titles in 26 years
Since 2000-01, 26 seasons have opened with a team at No. 1 in the AP poll. One of those seasons, 2019-20, ended without a tournament. Of the other 25, only three preseason No. 1s won the national title: UConn in 2004, Florida in 2007 and North Carolina in 2009.
That's 12%. Nine of the 25 reached the Final Four, including four that lost in the title game. The rest went out early, sometimes very early. Kansas lost in the first round as the preseason No. 1 in 2005 and again in 2025. North Carolina started 2022-23 at No. 1 and didn't make the tournament at all.
It's been 16 tournaments since a preseason No. 1 cut down the nets. The last four tell the story:
2022-23 North Carolina: missed the tournament.
2023-24 Kansas: lost in the second round.
2024-25 Kansas: lost in the first round.
2025-26 Purdue: reached the Elite Eight, then lost 79-64 to Arizona.
Champions usually come from somewhere else
If you want to find the next champion in the preseason poll, No. 1 is one of the worst places to look. More champions since 2001 started the season unranked (four) than at No. 1 (three). Twelve of the 25 started outside the top five.
The last two are perfect examples. Florida's 2025 title team began that season ranked No. 21. Michigan, last season's champion, started at No. 7 and beat No. 1 seed Arizona in the Final Four on its way to the title.
The sweet spot has been just below the top. Ten of the 25 champions started between No. 2 and No. 5. This season, that's Duke, Illinois, UConn and Arizona.
Why No. 1 is so hard
Part of it is simple math. A preseason No. 1 is the single most likely champion, but "most likely" in a single-elimination tournament of 68 teams, and 76 this March, is still a long shot. One bad shooting night in March ends the season, no matter how good the team was in November, December, or January.
Part of it is that the preseason poll is a guess. It's built on recruiting rankings, transfers, team NIL, and last year's results, before anyone has played a game. Injuries, chemistry, and a full season of coaching can change everything.
And part of it is that being No. 1 means getting everyone's best game. Every opponent circles the date.
Florida knows the risk better than most. Last March, the Gators were a No. 1 seed and lost to No. 9 seed Iowa, 73-72, in the second round.
What it means for Florida
None of this means Florida can't win it all. The Gators have done it from No. 1 before, and they have more money invested in this roster than almost anyone in the country. "We're not going into the portal every year spending $20 million," coach Todd Golden told CBS Sports, which makes this season feel like their window.
But history says the odds are against any one team, and the No. 1 team especially. That's what makes college basketball and March Madness so beloved. The best team in October has won the title just three times in 25 years.
About the data: Preseason AP No. 1 teams and NCAA Tournament results for 2000-01 through 2024-25 are compiled by Vertize Sports; the 2025-26 result is from the NCAA bracket. "Final Four" counts include title-game appearances. Champions' preseason rankings are from the same compilation. Florida's roster valuation and Golden's quote are from CBS Sports (Oct. 21, 2026).